When Will We All Drive Electric Cars?
Reading the Melody23 post about her first solo drive - http://www.personapaper.com/article/12526-i-survived-my-first-solo-drive - got me thinking, how long before we all drive electric cars?
The affordability, performance and range of electric vehicles are improving all the time.
Leading the way is Tesla and its inspirational CEO, Elon Musk. Tesla is addressing all the issues:-
- Cost. Tesla cars are synonymous with performance. Current Tesla models are quite expensive but the strategy is to move from luxury, low volume to business-class, medium volume through to economical, high volume. Tesla's next release will be the Model 3. It's expected to retail for about $30,000. Not cheap but, when the savings in fuel and maintenance are taken into account, possibly low enough to ignite the EV revolution (read more here) .
- Batteries. EV's typically have a range of at least 200 miles and, in the USA, there is an infrastructure of recharging points. Elon Musk is investing heavily in the mass production of the next generation of high performance, low cost batteries. Nevada has just been officially selected to site Tesla's $5b factory which will annually build the batteries for 500,000 cars by 2020.
- Performance. EV's are already a joy to drive. The current Tesla top end models achieve 0-60 mph in 4.6 seconds. I've never driven an EV but even petrol-heads marvel at the near silent, instant acceleration.
Elon Musk is so committed to EV's that he has made all Tesla's patents freely available to everybody, even his competitors- this article - All our Patent are Belong to You and no, this is not bad grammar - illustrates the depth of Musk's vision and commitment.
Tesla seems to be dominating the EV horizon. At some point, traditional car makers will wake up and smell the coffee. I get the impression they're not yet fully committed to the EV market- but thanks to Tesla and Musk they will have to accept the inevitable- when they do, watch out!
The rise of EV's mirrors and complements the rise in PV technology. The cost of photovoltaics are falling annually. In 5 years time, I expect some EV's will be parked under PV carports to have their batteries re-charged overnight. In 10 years time, I expect some EV's will have ultra-thin PV's built into their bodywork. In 20 years time, who can say? Perhaps roads will provide the power- Solar Roadways ??
I believe by 2025, over 50% of new cars sold will be Electric Vehicles. When do you think we'll reach that tipping point?
EDIT:- Even the bankers agree with me- see here - I'm not sure an "endorsement" from UBS is something I should shout about or keep quiet.
Image Credit » Tesla Model S 2014 https://www.flickr.com/photos/harry_nl/13931046016/in/photolist